Acceptance or rejection of belief in evolution: A quick pulse check
Over at Neurologica blog, Steve Novella writes on recent survey data:
Acceptance of the basic tenets of evolutionary theory, therefore, is a good litmus test for any modern society. Of what, exactly, is another question, but certainly something is going wrong if the population does not accept this overwhelming scientific consensus. The US ranks second from the bottom (only Turkey is worse) in terms of accepting evolutionary theory. Researchers have been tracking the statistics for decades, and now some of the lead researchers in this field have published data from 1985 to 2020. There are some interesting details to pull from the numbers.The big news is that between 1985 and 2007 US public acceptance and rejection of evolutionary theory were in a statistical dead heat, each hovering between 40-45%, with “don’t know” varying between 10-20%. Then since 2007 the lines have started diverging, by 2019 with more people accepting evolution. (54%) than rejecting (36%). It’s too early to say how long this trend will hold or where it will stabilize, if it does, but this is a significant difference from the prior several decades. What is going on?
If we delve into the data we can see some predictors of accepting vs rejecting belief in evolution. The overwhelmingly most predictive factor is the degree to which one holds fundamentalist religious views. When it comes down to it, that is most of the phenomenon of evolution denial. All other factors are either minor or derive from fundamentalism. For example, political affiliation also correlates with belief, but this can be entirely explained by the fact that fundamentalists are mostly Republicans.
If we look at the age data this might provide a partial explanation for the increased acceptance among fundamentalists. The 18-24 age group accept evolution at 68%, 25-34 at 64%, while the 55 and over are only at 45%. So there is a generational phenomenon happening here, and perhaps fundamentalist denominations, in order to appeal to younger age groups and slow their demographic decline, are moderating their views. I know it doesn’t feel like that in the current political climate, but these are the numbers.
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