Regarding the fate of humanity

As people here know, my hobby is politics with a goal of having fun, getting some self-satisfaction, and preventing civilization collapse and human self-annihilation. It's a fun hobby, but the civilization and annihilation bits are a little tougher to achieve than those of most other hobbies, e.g., stamp, coin or car license plate collecting. Most hobbies tend to mostly emphasize the fun and self-satisfaction bits. 

Part of my hobby is to try to keep an eye out for what trends at the human civilization level might be afoot. A recent study caught my eye. The research is by Nafeez Ahmed  at the System Shift Lab, London, UK (Distinguished Fellow at Schumacher Institute for Sustainable Systems, Bristol, UK). This bit of research really resonates with me because it expresses about the same impending reality that I see. He sees the situation the same way I see it. That's my bias here. A news item about Ahmed's research on civilization comments:

Human civilization at a critical junction between 

authoritarian collapse and superabundance

Systems theorist who foresaw 2008 financial crash, clean energy growth, and Brexit says human species is on brink of next ‘giant leap’ in evolution to ‘networked superabundance’. But nationalist populism could stop this

A new scientific study published in the journal Foresight concludes that human civilization is on the brink of the next ‘giant leap’ in evolution. However, progress could be thwarted by centralized far-right political projects such as the incoming Donald Trump administration.

"Industrial civilization is facing 'inevitable' decline as it is replaced by what could turn out to be a far more advanced ‘postmaterialist’ civilization based on distributed superabundant clean energy. The main challenge is that industrial civilization is facing such rapid decline that this could derail the emergence of a new and superior 'life-cycle' for the human species", commented Dr Nafeez Ahmed, author of the paper, member of The Club of Rome, member of the Earth4All Transformational Economics Commission and Distinguished Fellow at the Schumacher Institute for Sustainable Systems.

The new paper synthesizes a vast body of scientific literature across the natural and social sciences to offer a new theory of the rise and fall of civilizations in history. It finds that civilizations evolve through a four-stage life-cycle of growth, stability, decline and transformation, encompassing both material-technological as well as cultural-organizational change. Industrial civilization today, the paper concludes, is moving through the final stages of its life-cycle - decline - which also means it is on the cusp of transformation. The paper examines a wide range of empirical data showing that a whole new material-technological system is emerging on a planetary scale as the old industrial order declines.

The paper demonstrates that the increase in authoritarian politics, including reactionary efforts to protect fossil fuels, is among the factors that could jeopardize civilization. Central to this decline is the global decrease in Energy Return On Investment (EROI) for oil, gas, and coal – a challenge that can be mitigated by transitioning to clean energy sources, where EROI is exponentially improving.

Major technological innovations such as clean energy, cellular agriculture, electric vehicles, artificial intelligence and 3D printing are set to massively upgrade the material capabilities of human civilization between the 2030s through to 2060. Combined, and if carefully designed, these new material capabilities could create new forms of 'networked superabundance' that protect earth systems. While they could create unparalleled prosperity, these technologies are inherently distributed and decentralized, and cannot be governed by old centralized industrial hierarchies. This is creating a widening gulf between what the paper calls the “industrial operating system” and the emerging new system – which is leading to major political and cultural disruptions in world affairs. Rising authoritarianism, the paper warns, could fatally disrupt the emergence of a new life-cycle for civilization. (emphasis added)

Ahmed describes his research like this:

The paper aims to address a gap in foresight study and practice relating to the lack of unifying theoretical systems frameworks capable of examining empirical data from across a wide range of different ecological, social, political and economic systems. It attempts to develop a new “collective forward intelligence” that can not only make sense of these disparate trends and processes as symptoms of a wider planetary system but also, on this basis, construct accurate and plausible future scenarios to underpin national and international decision-making.

This study conducts a transdisciplinary integration of C. S. Holling’s adaptive cycle with phase-transition phenomena across biology, physics and chemistry, applied on societal and civilizational scales. A systems methodology is then applied to integrate historical and empirical data across the energy, food, transport, materials and information sectors of civilization’s production system.

The paper suggests the urgency and necessity of bold and radical societal transformation and implies key areas for civil society to focus on in innovating new values, worldviews and operating systems with a focus on the next life-cycle.

To the best of the author’s knowledge, this paper provides the first integrated transdisciplinary theoretical and empirical framework to understand how the interplay of earth system crises, societal change and technology disruptions is driving large-scale civilizational transformation with complex local ramifications.

Ahmed concludes: “An amazing new possibility space is emerging, where humanity could provide itself superabundant energy, transport, food and knowledge without hurting the earth. This could be the next giant leap in human evolution. But if we fail to genuinely evolve as humans by rewiring how we govern these emerging capabilities responsibly and for the benefit of all, they could be our undoing. Instead of evolving, we would regress – if not collapse. The rise in authoritarian and far-right governments around the world, increases this grave risk of collapse. The incoming Donald Trump administration, with its commitment to elevating fossil fuels while gutting clean energy – as well as its focus on centralizing power along ethnonationalist lines – could prevent us successfully moving through the planetary [human] phase shift to the next stage of human evolution.”

What I find powerfully appealing about this line of research is that (1) it is multidisciplinary, including biology, as applied to our whole civilization, and (2) it feels like a very good fit with current radical right authoritarian American politics, tactics and policies, e.g., (i) populist authoritarian, and (ii) hyper-focused on protecting ossified, corrupting coal, oil and gas business interests at the expense of alternate energy sources. IMHO, that is a colossal mistake by corrupted DJT and his corrupt MAGA.

The usual caution applies to this research. This is original work. A lot more research is needed to to shore up the current findings. However, I bet that this line of inquiry is on the right track. It truly feels right. 

I know, I know, TL/DR. Sigh. 🥺

By Germaine: Amateur hobbyist