Science bits: Effects of AGW; Happy atypical families; Belief in AGW

An aspect of AGW (anthropogenic global warming) is that climate is complex and not fully understood. Because of that, effects of AGW can be unpredictable. Climate science deniers and propagandists routinely attack current projections by expert consensus as too alarmist, overblown and too uncertain. There is some truth about the uncertainty. Specifically, the situation can be worse than the expert consensus projects. The deniers reject that possibility from the uncertainty, but climate uncertainty can work both ways, better or worse.

A recent Nature Scientific Reports centers on data that might strike some people as maybe counterintuitive or unexpected. Specifically, in climate-induce hot spots in India, the forests are becoming less efficient at carbon uptake from the  air. The paper’s abstract comments:

India is the second-highest contributor to the post-2000 global greening. However, with satellite data, here we show that this 18.51% increase in Leaf Area Index (LAI) during 2001–2019 fails to translate into increased carbon uptake due to warming constraints. Our analysis further shows 6.19% decrease in Net Primary Productivity (NPP) during 2001–2019 over the temporally consistent forests in India despite 6.75% increase in LAI. .... three regions [of decreased NPP] are also the warming hotspots in India. .... Decreasing photosynthesis and stable respiration, above a threshold temperature, in these regions, .... are the key reasons behind the declining NPP. 

So, as the temperature increases, the global ecosystem becomes less capable of responding to global warming and increasing levels of carbon dioxide pollution. Once a person becomes aware of that possibility, unexpected effects can become more expected.

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This is about families with a gender atypical child or children. The result is not a surprise:

In a new study published in Sex Roles, researchers have found evidence that parental acceptance of gender atypicality plays a crucial role in buffering social anxiety in younger children. This study, one of the first of its kind, offers significant insights into how children’s gender expression relates to their mental well-being.

the researchers examined gender atypicality — not gender identity. Gender atypicality is about how one’s gender expression aligns with societal norms and expectations, while gender identity is about one’s internal sense of their own gender, irrespective of societal norms. The two can intersect but do not necessarily correlate directly — for instance, a person may identify strongly with their assigned gender (gender identity) but still engage in behavior that is considered atypical for that gender (like a boy playing with dolls).

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This is about human cognitive biology and behavior in the context of AGW, which about one-third of adults still reject or have serious doubt about:

Climate: why disinformation is so persistent

A UNIGE team has tested six psychological interventions to combat climate misinformation. It shows how difficult it is to combat these messages, which are resistant to scientific information

Fighting disinformation about climate change is a major challenge for society. Although scientific consensus on human responsibility - reaffirmed by the sixth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) - has been in place for decades, a third of the population still doubts or disputes it. This phenomenon can be explained by the disinformation spread by certain companies and lobbies over the last 50 years.

‘‘For instance, these messages can take the form of an unfounded questioning of the scientific consensus or an overestimation of the socio-financial burden of climate policies,’’ ....

‘‘We found that the protective effect of our strategies is small and disappears after the second exposure to disinformation. Climate disinformation used in this study has a negative influence on people’s belief in climate change and their sustainable behavior’’, says Tobias Brosch, Associate Professor in the CDSB Lab at the Faculty of Psychology and Educational Sciences and at the Swiss Center for Affective Sciences in the UNIGE, and senior author of the study. ‘‘Disinformation is therefore extremely persuasive, seemingly more so than scientific information. Only the ‘accuracy’ group, who were asked to think in depth about the accuracy of the information they encountered online, showed a slight advantage.’’

The six climate topics the researchers examined related to (i) expert scientific climate science consensus about AGW, (ii) trust in climate scientists, (iii) transparent communication, (iv) moralizing climate action, (v) accuracy of climate data, and (vi) positive emotions towards climate action. People exposed to disinformation (false or biased information) were usually rejected or were more doubtful about all of the topics except accuracy.

This shows that AGW disinformation that appeals to beliefs, moral values or group loyalties is usually more persuasive than neutral or positive information, which may reinforce or contradict personal beliefs, values and/or loyalty. And this human trait is broader than just AGW. In other words, lying and slandering usually works pretty well in AGW, commerce, politics and just about everything else.

By Germaine: An atypical