Science: AI does the weather forecast and gets it right!

The WaPo reports about an interstellar galactic, supermassive black hole breakthrough in weather forecasting. AI is doing it!!:
A new computer model to predict the weather built by Google and powered by artificial intelligence consistently outperforms and is many times faster than government models that have existed for decades and involved hundreds of millions of dollars in investment, according to a study published Tuesday.

The study, published in the journal Science, showed the AI model to be more accurate for forecasts of both day-to-day weather and extreme events, such as hurricanes and intense heat and cold.

Its stellar performance and promising results from other AI models like it may signify the start of a new era for weather prediction, although experts say it doesn’t mean AI is ready to replace all traditional forecasting methods.

Google DeepMind’s AI model, named “GraphCast,” was trained on nearly 40 years of historical data and can make a 10-day forecast at six-hour intervals for locations spread around the globe in less than a minute on a computer the size of a small box. It takes a traditional model an hour or more on a supercomputer the size of a school bus to accomplish the same feat. GraphCast was more accurate than the European model on more than 90 percent of the weather variables evaluated.  
AI models use a different approach. They are first trained to recognize patterns in vast amounts of historical weather data, then generate forecasts by ingesting current conditions and applying what they learned from the historical patterns. The process is much less computationally intensive and can be completed in minutes or even seconds on much smaller computers.

The ability to learn from the growing archives of past weather data is a key advantage of AI models. “This has potential to improve forecast accuracy by capturing patterns and scales in the data which are not easily represented in explicit equations,” the authors, who developed the model, wrote in the study.

GraphCast forecast for Hurricane Lee, which made landfall Sept. 16 in Nova Scotia 
at a strength equivalent to a tropical storm. (Google DeepMind)



By Germaine: Obviously not the weatherperson

Germaine's forecast for tomorrow


Germaine's forecast for the next day

And the following day

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

That Uplifting Tweet You Just Shared? A Russian Troll Sent It

Image
Here’s what Russia’s 2020 disinformation operations look like, according to two experts on social media and propaganda. By   DARREN LINVILL   &   PATRICK WARREN Internet trolls don’t troll. Not the professionals at least. Professional trolls don’t go on social media to antagonize liberals or belittle conservatives. They are not narrow minded, drunk or angry. They don’t lack basic English language skills. They certainly aren’t  “somebody sitting on their bed that weighs 400 pounds,”  as the president once put it. Your stereotypical trolls do exist on social media, but the amateurs aren’t a threat to Western democracy. Professional trolls, on the other hand, are the tip of the spear in the new digital, ideological battleground. To combat the threat they pose, we must first understand them — and take them seriously. MORE: https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/russia-troll-2020-election-interference-twitter-916482/ P...
Read more

The Nightmare Scenario That Keeps Election Lawyers Up At Night -- And Could Hand Trump A Second Term

Image
The Nightmare Scenario That Keeps Election Lawyers Up At Night -- And Could Hand Trump A Second Term   (Photo: Photos: Getty Images) Americans will almost certainly go to bed on Nov. 3 without knowing who won the presidential election. Since millions of people will vote by mail, constraints on time and resources will slow ballot counting into potentially a weeks-long process. Voting patterns suggest it’s likely that President  Donald Trump  could end Election Day in the lead in certain key states, only to be overtaken by Democratic opponent  Joe Biden  when more votes are tallied.  This could create a nightmare scenario during the three months stretching from Election Day to the Jan. 20 inauguration: a battle on the state and congressional level over who is the legitimate winner. This could include Congress reconvening on Jan. 6, presided over by Vice President  Mike Pence , with no consensus over its potential role in choosing the next president. This...
Read more

When Life Hands You Lemons

Image
 It's like this folks: sometimes your mind goes blank. Happens more than usual with me of course. Take this forum for instance. I wanted to post something today and couldn't think of a topic. At least not a non-sexual one and we know sexual ones lately have been frowned upon.  Then along comes one of our regulars and complains about something. Well, they might not say it was a complaint, just an observation, but it was a complaint. A minor one. It has something to do about being able to make something out of nothing. Sort of like me this morning, how to make a thread out of an empty head? But they (notice I am using the correct pronoun, not saying he or she), by what they said got me thinking. What I thought was: Not sure if that is the actual saying, if I remember correctly, I remember the saying going something like this: Umm, no, I don't think the saying I am thinking of goes that way either, maybe ONE of you good folks can remind me how the saying goes. Either way, when...
Read more