Why You Should Stop Trying to Predict the Future

I understand why predictions are popular. They appeal to human nature. They create a sense of certainty in an uncertain world.

But they are wrong far more often than we assume.

“The growth of the Internet will slow drastically,” wrote Paul Krugman in 1998. “Most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s.”

That one may have slightly missed the mark. Krugman went on to win the Nobel Prize in Economics.

https://nextbigideaclub.com/magazine/stop-trying-predict-future/36494/

What Snowy says................ bah Humbug, predicting the future is like a game, it can be fun making predictions and seeing which come true.

A big problem with prediction is laid bare – humans don’t have the necessary neurology to perceive, comprehend and manipulate a massively complex, constantly shifting and increasingly weird concept as the future.

Humans also have tremendously complex psychologies, awash with anxieties, prejudice and emotions that combine to create a letter-box view of the future that largely contains the viewer.

https://www.thedrum.com/opinion/2024/12/23/we-are-really-bad-predicting-the-future-there-way

Awash with anxieties, prejudice and emotions. Well, there you have it. That is why so many of you and us are predicting dire consequences from Trump becoming President again.

BUT........

It's still fun to predict, ain't it??

So, here is YOUR chance to predict the future. Your own future if you want to predict it. The future of America or the planet or of science or of the arts or ............... well.................. ANYTHING.

Can you predict how much longer you will be frequenting Snowflake's Forum? 

Stuff like that. 

Go for it. 











Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

That Uplifting Tweet You Just Shared? A Russian Troll Sent It

Image
Here’s what Russia’s 2020 disinformation operations look like, according to two experts on social media and propaganda. By   DARREN LINVILL   &   PATRICK WARREN Internet trolls don’t troll. Not the professionals at least. Professional trolls don’t go on social media to antagonize liberals or belittle conservatives. They are not narrow minded, drunk or angry. They don’t lack basic English language skills. They certainly aren’t  “somebody sitting on their bed that weighs 400 pounds,”  as the president once put it. Your stereotypical trolls do exist on social media, but the amateurs aren’t a threat to Western democracy. Professional trolls, on the other hand, are the tip of the spear in the new digital, ideological battleground. To combat the threat they pose, we must first understand them — and take them seriously. MORE: https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/russia-troll-2020-election-interference-twitter-916482/ P...
Read more

The Nightmare Scenario That Keeps Election Lawyers Up At Night -- And Could Hand Trump A Second Term

Image
The Nightmare Scenario That Keeps Election Lawyers Up At Night -- And Could Hand Trump A Second Term   (Photo: Photos: Getty Images) Americans will almost certainly go to bed on Nov. 3 without knowing who won the presidential election. Since millions of people will vote by mail, constraints on time and resources will slow ballot counting into potentially a weeks-long process. Voting patterns suggest it’s likely that President  Donald Trump  could end Election Day in the lead in certain key states, only to be overtaken by Democratic opponent  Joe Biden  when more votes are tallied.  This could create a nightmare scenario during the three months stretching from Election Day to the Jan. 20 inauguration: a battle on the state and congressional level over who is the legitimate winner. This could include Congress reconvening on Jan. 6, presided over by Vice President  Mike Pence , with no consensus over its potential role in choosing the next president. This...
Read more

When Life Hands You Lemons

Image
 It's like this folks: sometimes your mind goes blank. Happens more than usual with me of course. Take this forum for instance. I wanted to post something today and couldn't think of a topic. At least not a non-sexual one and we know sexual ones lately have been frowned upon.  Then along comes one of our regulars and complains about something. Well, they might not say it was a complaint, just an observation, but it was a complaint. A minor one. It has something to do about being able to make something out of nothing. Sort of like me this morning, how to make a thread out of an empty head? But they (notice I am using the correct pronoun, not saying he or she), by what they said got me thinking. What I thought was: Not sure if that is the actual saying, if I remember correctly, I remember the saying going something like this: Umm, no, I don't think the saying I am thinking of goes that way either, maybe ONE of you good folks can remind me how the saying goes. Either way, when...
Read more