The Butterfly Effect: History & random events

 Sometimes small, seemingly unimportant events have major consequences. If Hitler and Hugenberg has just kept bickering for a few minutes more, an impatient German President Hindenburg would have left, Hitler would not have risen to power as Chancellor, and the major kerfuffle called World War 2 would have been avoided. There were a number of such events in the American revolutionary war. 

1. In Battle of Long Island, a heavy fog settled over Brooklyn on the morning of August 30, 1776. The fog concealed the evacuation of the Continental Army from Brooklyn Heights to Manhattan. This allowed General George Washington to evacuate his entire army, including 9,000 troops, without the loss of life or supplies. Had the British detected this retreat, they could have inflicted a devastating blow to the American forces, potentially ending the war early in their favor.

2. In the Trenton-Princeton Campaign (December 25-26, 1776), a nor'easter storm with rain, hail, snow, and freezing temperatures occurred as Washington's army crossed the Delaware River to attack the Hessian garrison at Trenton. The storm drove in the Hessian pickets, allowing Washington to maintain the element of surprise. This surprise attack resulted in a significant American victory, boosting morale and preventing the collapse of the Continental Army at a critical juncture.

The Hessian pickets during the American Revolutionary War were small groups of soldiers stationed at outposts or defensive positions around key locations, such as the town of Trenton, to act as an early warning system against enemy attacks. On the Pennington Road, a defensive position was established in a cooper's house approximately half a mile outside of Trenton, manned by a corporal and twenty-four men under the command of Lt. Andreas von Wiederholdt. Another picket was located halfway between von Wiederholdt’s position and the town, under the leadership of Capt. Ernst von Altenbockum, who had a company of the Lossberg Regiment. Additionally, a guard of fifty jägers was stationed on the river road about a mile from Trenton, commanded by Lt. Friedrich von Gröthausen, in the home of American Gen. Philemon Dickinson, known as The Hermitage. These pickets were strategically placed to detect and report any approaching enemy forces, providing the main Hessian garrison with time to prepare for defense or counterattack.

3. British naval attack on an American fort that was thwarted by wind blowing in the wrong direction. This event occurred during the Battle of Fort Mifflin in 1777. The British ships Augusta and Merlin were sent to provide naval support for a Hessian attack on Fort Mercer, which was part of the defense of Fort Mifflin. The ships ran aground on a sandbar, which was believed to have been caused by the wind blowing in the wrong direction. This unexpected event prevented the British from providing the planned naval bombardment support to the Hessian attack on Fort Mercer. The Hessian forces, without the anticipated naval support, were repulsed with significant losses in the Battle of Red Bank on 22 October 1777. This setback was a significant blow to British plans to capture Philadelphia, as Fort Mifflin continued to hold out against bombardment, and the failure of the naval support contributed to the overall failure of the British strategy in this campaign.

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But the random event with big consequences phenomenon is throughout human history. For example, as we all recall from our history class, in the The Second Defenestration of Prague (1618)[1], four Catholic officials were tossed out of a window. That is an known as defenestration. At the time Protestants and Catholics were bickering. The Second Defenestration sparked the Thirty Years' War. That was one of the most destructive conflicts in European history, leading to widespread devastation and loss of life. The war ended with the Peace of Westphalia in 1648, which established the principle of state sovereignty and the modern system of nation-states. 

Who would have guessed that simply tossing a few Catholics out a window would start a huge, bloody conflict and massively change history forever? God really does work in mysterious ways. Or not. Some folks call this creepy phenomenon the butterfly effect. What is the butterfly effect?

This concept from chaos theory turns out to work differently in the

quantum world, where it is called the quantum butterfly non-effect

THE BUTTERFLY EFFECT

The butterfly effect is a concept from chaos theory that describes how small changes in initial conditions can lead to vastly different outcomes in complex, deterministic systems. The behavior of the system as a whole is not easily predictable from the behavior of its individual parts, e.g., tossing Catholics out a window. Complex systems exhibit properties like nonlinearity, emergence, spontaneous order, adaptation, and feedback loops.

The 30 years war exhibited emergent behavior, where the collective actions of the participants led to outcomes that were not directly attributable to any single cause or actor. The Peace of Westphalia, which ended the war, was not a direct result of any one event but rather the culmination of numerous conflicts, negotiations, and power shifts. While the war was deterministic in the sense that its events followed from the initial conditions and the actions of the participants, the complexity of the system made long-term prediction impossible. 

In other words, the whole darned30 years war shebang was unpredictable. 

Footnote: 

1. And, as we all recall, the First Defenestration of Prague occurred on July 30, 1419. It is considered a pivotal event that marked the beginning of the Hussite Wars, a series of conflicts in Bohemia (now part of the Czech Republic) that lasted until 1436 (17 years!). In the 1st window tossing event, an irate crowd stormed the New Town Hall in Prague. In the ensuing chaos, seven members of the city council, including the mayor, two councillors, an aide of the judge, five elders, and a serf [oh no, not a serf!], were thrown out the window. Those who survived the fall were subsequently killed by the crowd using cutting weapons. [cutting weapons??] The First Defenestration of Prague was a turning point, escalating religious tensions into open conflict. It led to the Hussite Wars, which saw Bohemia ravaged by civil war but also resulted in significant victories and the emergence of notable figures like Jan Žižka, who later commanded the Hussite army.

The lesson here is clear: Do not toss people out of windows.

By Germaine: The dabbler who connects history & science to humans, whether they like it or not, or believe it or not

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