How small is the Republican Population?

By Best in Moderation

Since my last data-filled OP was such a hit, and triggered so many defense mechanisms, let's do another quick one.

The Claims

1. Republican majority states are the minority, even below independent states
2. The Republican population in Republican leaning states is a fraction of the Democratic population in Democratic leaning states.
3. Due to the design of our nation, Republicans have far outsized power in government than their population would imply.
4. Even with the designs of Minority Power in the Senate and Gerrymandering, the Democrats should by population hold more power than they do.

The Sources

For this analysis we will use the self-identification poll from the last OP:

https://www.pewforum.org/religious-landscape-study/compare/party-affiliation/by/state/

The Data

Below is a table of the population of each state, how many people identify as each party or unaffiliated in each, and the population that that percent totals:

Rank	State	Population	Republican/lean Rep.	Population Republicans	No lean	Population Independents	Democrat/lean Dem.	Population Democrats
1	Alabama	4,903,185	52%	2,549,656	13%	637,414	35%	1,716,115
2	Alaska	731,545	39%	285,303	29%	212,148	32%	234,094
3	Arizona	7,278,717	40%	2,911,487	21%	1,528,531	39%	2,838,700
4	Arkansas	3,017,804	46%	1,388,190	16%	482,849	38%	1,146,766
5	California	39,512,223	30%	11,853,667	21%	8,297,567	49%	19,360,989
6	Colorado	5,758,736	41%	2,361,082	17%	978,985	42%	2,418,669
7	Connecticut	3,565,287	32%	1,140,892	18%	641,752	50%	1,782,644
8	Delaware	973,764	29%	282,392	17%	165,540	55%	535,570
9	District of Columbia	705,749	11%	77,632	15%	105,862	73%	515,197
10	Florida	21,477,737	37%	7,946,763	19%	4,080,770	44%	9,450,204
11	Georgia	10,617,423	41%	4,353,143	18%	1,911,136	41%	4,353,143
12	Hawaii	1,415,872	28%	396,444	20%	283,174	51%	722,095
13	Idaho	1,787,065	49%	875,662	19%	339,542	32%	571,861
14	Illinois	12,671,821	33%	4,181,701	19%	2,407,646	48%	6,082,474
15	Indiana	6,732,219	42%	2,827,532	20%	1,346,444	37%	2,490,921
16	Iowa	3,155,070	41%	1,293,579	19%	599,463	40%	1,262,028
17	Kansas	2,913,314	46%	1,340,124	23%	670,062	31%	903,127
18	Kentucky	4,467,673	44%	1,965,776	13%	580,797	43%	1,921,099
19	Louisiana	4,648,794	41%	1,906,006	16%	743,807	43%	1,998,981
20	Maine	1,344,212	36%	483,916	17%	228,516	47%	631,780
21	Maryland	6,045,680	31%	1,874,161	14%	846,395	55%	3,325,124
22	Massachusetts	6,892,503	27%	1,860,976	17%	1,171,726	56%	3,859,802
23	Michigan	9,986,857	34%	3,395,531	19%	1,897,503	47%	4,693,823
24	Minnesota	5,639,632	39%	2,199,456	15%	845,945	46%	2,594,231
25	Mississippi	2,976,149	44%	1,309,506	14%	416,661	42%	1,249,983
26	Missouri	6,137,428	41%	2,516,345	18%	1,104,737	42%	2,577,720
27	Montana	1,068,778	49%	523,701	21%	224,443	30%	320,633
28	Nebraska	1,934,408	47%	909,172	17%	328,849	36%	696,387
29	Nevada	3,080,156	37%	1,139,658	18%	554,428	46%	1,416,872
30	New Hampshire	1,359,711	35%	475,899	20%	271,942	44%	598,273
31	New Jersey	8,882,190	30%	2,664,657	19%	1,687,616	51%	4,529,917
32	New Mexico	2,096,829	37%	775,827	15%	314,524	48%	1,006,478
33	New York	19,453,561	28%	5,446,997	19%	3,696,177	53%	10,310,387
34	North Carolina	10,488,084	41%	4,300,114	17%	1,782,974	43%	4,509,876
35	North Dakota	762,062	50%	381,031	18%	137,171	33%	251,480
36	Ohio	11,689,100	42%	4,909,422	18%	2,104,038	40%	4,675,640
37	Oklahoma	3,956,971	45%	1,780,637	15%	593,546	40%	1,582,788
38	Oregon	4,217,737	32%	1,349,676	21%	885,725	47%	1,982,336
39	Pennsylvania	12,801,989	39%	4,992,776	15%	1,920,298	46%	5,888,915
40	Rhode Island	1,059,361	30%	317,808	22%	233,059	48%	508,493
41	South Carolina	5,148,714	43%	2,213,947	18%	926,769	39%	2,007,998
42	South Dakota	884,659	53%	468,869	10%	88,466	37%	327,324
43	Tennessee	6,829,174	48%	3,278,004	15%	1,024,376	36%	2,458,503
44	Texas	28,995,881	39%	11,308,394	21%	6,089,135	40%	11,598,352
45	Utah	3,205,958	54%	1,731,217	16%	512,953	30%	961,787
46	Vermont	623,989	29%	180,957	14%	87,358	57%	355,674
47	Virginia	8,535,519	43%	3,670,273	18%	1,536,393	39%	3,328,852
48	Washington	7,614,893	33%	2,512,915	23%	1,751,425	44%	3,350,553
49	West Virginia	1,792,147	43%	770,623	16%	286,744	41%	734,780
50	Wisconsin	5,822,434	42%	2,445,422	16%	931,589	42%	2,445,422
51	Wyoming	578,759	57%	329,893	18%	104,177	25%	144,690

The Comparison

Based on the data, we find there are only 8 states that are strongly majority Republican (15% or more difference between Rep/Dem total)

And there are only 6 states that lean towards Republicans (5% or more difference between Rep/Dem Total):

There are 8 States that are considered Deep Purple (0-1% difference either way):

And 7 States that are mostly purple (<5% difference either way):

There are 9 states which identify as leaning Democratic (>5% up to 15% difference in Democratic versus Republican affiliation):

And there are 12 states which are Deep Blue (meaning a greater than 15% difference in Democratic versus Republican affiliation) + DC:

Breaking down each population into groupings, we get the following:

Population	Republican	Independent	Democrat
Deep Red	8,200,154	2,714,229	5,197,018
Light Red	10,468,837	3,988,212	8,609,459
Purple Red	12,873,771	5,270,604	11,997,254
Deep Purple	29,155,228	13,724,374	29,415,134
Purple Blue	6,206,120	2,526,781	6,508,858
Light Blue	23,922,741	11,865,352	29,631,128
Deep Blue	31,627,959	20,509,597	53,870,702

Comparing those numbers, we get the following:

The population of Republicans in Deep Red states only make up 2.5% of the nation and hold a 1.58 advantage over Democrats in those states.
The population of Republicans in any Republican leaning state only make up 5.69% of the population of the USA, and hold a 1.35 advantage over Democrats in those states.
The population of Republicans in Purple States make up 14.69% of the nation, and hold a slight 1.065 advantage over Democrats in those states.
The population of Republicans in any Democratic leaning state make up 16.92% of the nation, with a 1.5 disadvantage with Democrats in those states
And the population of Republicans in Deep Blue states make up 9.63% of the nation, the largest population of Republicans in the nation, with a 1.7 disadvantage with Democrats in those states.

The Conclusions:

The following claims were investigated:

Republican majority states are the minority, even below independent states

• This is TRUE, as there are 15 Purple states and 14 Republican states, with the other 22 States leaning or being heavily Democratic. In fact, Deep Blue states almost number equally to ALL red states (13 to 14).

The Republican population in Republican leaning states is a fraction of the Democratic population in Democratic leaning states.

• TRUE. The exact number is 0.2236, or 22% (about 1/5th).

Due to the design of our nation, Republicans have far outsized power in government than their population would imply.

• This one is complicated, because based on affiliation one would expect 8 states to be firmly under Republican control, 6 states giving them an advantage, and and perhaps 9 states from the Purple ones going towards them, giving them a total of 23 states.
• Meanwhile, we can expect 13 states to be firmly Democratic, with 9 more states having a Democratic advantage, and 6 Purple states going towards them, giving them a total of 27 States.
• This means that if we take variability of support into account (since you cannot cluster all votes behind a single candidate and assuming you need at least more than 80% of the vote covered by your party, with Independents filling the rest), we'd expect to see all Republican-Leaning states vote only Republican Senators. We would also expect based on the same population only 9 Purple states having possibly a single Democratic Senator (and none over 86%). Furthermore, we have reasonable certainty of a Democratic Senator in only 8 states, and then only a single one. Meanwhile, Republicans are likely to have 14 Senators from Purple states and none from Democratic states.
• Taking all that into account and assuming little crossing of party lines (assuming you need 95% of the vote without any of the opposition) we can estimate that 12 states would have both Republicans Senators, 21 states would have only Democratic Senators, and 17 states would have one of each. That means 58 Democrats and 42 Republicans.
• Based on population, we would expect 37.30% of the House to be Republicans, and 44.24% to be Democrats, with 18.46% being independent. Given our two party lock-in, we can parcel the independents up similarly going by state population, giving 5.74% more to Republicans and 12.72% more to Democrats. This would mean we should see 187 Republican Representatives and 248 Democratic Representatives.
• Even if we gave ALL the Independent voters in all Red Leaning states to the Republicans, that would give them only 39.34% of the total population.
• And even is we gave ALL the Independent voters in all Purple and Red Leaning states to Republicans, they'd have 45.90% to Dems' 54.10% (200 Republicans versus 235 Democrats)
• ONLY if you gave ALL Independent voters to the Republican party and split the independents in blue states up by affiliation difference, you'd get a Republican advantage of 52.49%. Again, this assumes ALL Independents except in Blue states vote 100% Republican.
• Ruling: MOSTLY TRUE in practice, FALSE in theory.

Even with the designs of Minority Power in the Senate and Gerrymandering, the Democrats should by population hold more power than they do.

• TRUE: We have a 50/50 split in the Senate, off from the expected 58/42, and we have 221/213 US Representatives, instead of the expected 248/187 based on population or 235/200 based on Independent-Republican dominance.

Interesting things to note as well are:

• That the 8 Republican Heavy states have significantly less population than the 6 Republican-leaning states, and both have less Republicans than all except the 2 Purple-Blue states.
• That Republicans and Independents live mostly in Deep Purple States, with the second highest being in Purple-BLUE and Deep Blue states, respectively. It's strange that the first or second most population isn't in Republican heavy states, because:
• That Democrats live mostly in Deep Blue states, with the second most population being in Deep Purple States.
• That for both Democrats and Republicans, the lowest populations are to be found in Deep Red States, while for Republicans, the lowest population is to be found in Leaning Red States.
• If Democrats could split their base vote perfectly, they would have 27 states locked down in the Senate, while for Republicans that's only 22 states.

See any more interesting things to note? Let me know in the comments below, and heck, let me know what you'd like me to investigate next!