Fate of the universe update: The vampire database is growing fast

As we all know, the universe will come to an end sometime. Maybe. It will take billions of years. To prepare, some of us are trying to make sure the human species is gonna actually be there (1) when the fun happens, (2) when we have slipped away to another universe before the fun happens, or (3) we find out it isn't gonna happen and our universe will not come to an end sometime. We live in exciting times. 

Our friends at Space.com report release of a new database. The article, Largest-ever supernova catalog ever provides further evidence dark energy is weakening, discusses Union 3, a database of 2,087 detonating vampire stars, otherwise called standardized Type 1a supernovas. The original 1998 database cataloged 50 vampires. That data was just enough to barely hint that dark energy was weakening. The Union 2 database had data from 557 vampires and that more strongly hinted that dark energy was weakening. Now, analysis of Union 3 data still indicates that dark energy is weakening over time.    

The hunt for vampires and their analysis will be vastly accelerated when vast amounts of data from the Vera C. Rubin Observatory (discussed here last June) starts gushing in. Rubin is projected to potentially uncover 1 million vampires over its ten-year-long Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) survey. That's about 1 million/year or ~8,333.333/month. The discovery rate from 1998 to 2025 was ~56/year or ~4.666/month.

The article explains vampires like this:
Type 1a supernovas involve stellar remnants called white dwarfs that are left behind when stars around the size of the sun die. When in close binary partnerships with other stars, these stellar corpses can steal matter like a cosmic vampire.

This material builds up on a white dwarf until the dead star is tipped over the so-called Chandrasekhar limit, around 1.4 times the mass of the sun. Exceeding this limit means the white dwarf can go supernova.

The resultant explosions are Type 1a supernovas — and they are useful as a measurement tool for astronomers because their light output is uniform from event to event. By comparing Type 1a supernovas at different distances and seeing how their light has been redshifted by the expansion of the universe, the value for the rate of expansion of the universe (the Hubble constant) can be obtained. Then, that can be used to understand the impact of dark energy on the cosmos at different times.
This video, posted here in June hints at the vast data accumulation power of the Rubin telescope. Once that beast has had some time to suck up vast wads* or buttloads* of vampire data, this business about dark energy fluctuations will get cleared up once the computers have had some time to analyze it. Then we will know the fate of the universe and when it ends. Maybe.


Rubin's discovery of a slew* asteroids in a small slice 
of the donut-shaped asteroid ring around Earth


* "Slew", "vast wads", "buttloads" and "insane" are technical units that add precision, elegance and clarity to the discussion.


By Germaine: Fiddling with science with great precision, elegance & clarity


Technical assessment of Rubin's data-gathering capacity:
Insane*!!!

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