An update on the status of psi phenomena: Mining the mind

The study of psi phenomena focuses on things like remote viewing (the ability to perceive distant locations without conventional sensory input), precognition (predicting or knowledge of future events before they occur), telepathy (direct mind-to-mind communication), and psychokinesis (mentally moving or influencing things too small to be seen, e.g., a computer's random number generator). 

Psi phenomena involve unknown information transfer mechanisms that appear to operate outside the capabilities of our known senses such as vision and hearing. However, auditory and visual hallucinations, including experiences of "talking to God," are not psi phenomena. They don't involve information transfer from external sources such as a God. Instead, those are documented neurological phenomena with identifiable brain correlates and mechanisms. Religious hallucinations are understood as internally generated perceptual experiences, often with clear neurological triggers such as temporal lobe epilepsy, psychiatric conditions, or altered states of consciousness.

Current expert consensus is that psi phenomena are not real. There is no known or testable explanation for the alleged observations. Psi effects observed are small and cannot be replicated in well-controlled studies. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. The evidence so far doesn't meet the threshold required for paradigm-shifting claims. Also, replicability failures are common. Independent replications often fail, particularly when conducted by skeptical researchers, which points to human factors such as unconscious bias. Finally, when there are statistically significant effects, they are usually small.

Predicting the future: the example of tyranny

A perhaps instructive observation relates to the academic study of history. When a past prediction of future events such as the rise of a tyrant occur and seem to be accurate, the prediction is likely grounded in a combination of random chance and at least some unconscious understanding of the human condition in terms of cognitive biology (unconscious biases, etc.) and social behavior (group and tribe loyalty, herd behavior, etc.). It is not a matter of a psi phenomenon in play. If human behavior follows predictable patterns based on psychological traits and situational factors, then political forecasting based on observable behavior patterns is more parsimonious than invoking supernatural precognition.

How historians do it: When major tyrants of history are studied, the best analyses are based mostly on two basic factors. First, local, national, social, economic, religious, technological and cultural circumstances are considered. Things like that necessarily are significant influencers of behavior. Second, the tyrant's mindset and attendant motives are taken into account. Mindset and motive can be usually assessed with reasonable accuracy by considering the cognitive biology, social behavior and what the tyrant did and didn't do. In all or almost all instances, a tyrant's behavior necessarily reflects their authoritarian mindset. That is clearly evident in Trump and MAGA in American politics today.

So, if an authoritarian mindset can be spotted and described to some reasonable extent by the person's actions, can the same be true of an anti-tyrant, e.g., a democrat? I don't see why not. The same applies to assessment of honesty, competence, moral tendency or complexion, etc. 

Note: This blog post has been vetted and approved by Pxy brand AI, the best there is, unless it isn't!

By Germaine: Mining the human mind for gold nuggets of truth and insight 

I found a nugget!

(Peanut: You are a nugget)