Global warming update: Rut roh! The Beaufort Gyre is weakening

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As we all know form posts here and info elsewhere, climate science experts are concerned about the collapse of the AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation). That deep sea water current powers the Gulf Stream and a large network of currents in the Atlantic Ocean. AMOC heavily affects weather in Europe . Sci Tech Daily writes about troubles with the Beaufort Gyre, which could wind up accelerating the collapse of the AMOC: 


A major ocean current in the Arctic, the Beaufort Gyre, is changing rapidly due to climate warming—and this could trigger a chain reaction that disrupts the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the system behind the Gulf Stream.

Scientists warn that melting sea ice may reach a tipping point, causing the Gyre to release massive amounts of freshwater into the North Atlantic. If that happens, the AMOC could weaken or collapse, drastically altering weather patterns across the Northern Hemisphere, especially in Europe. New model projections suggest that urgent emissions cuts are essential to avoid this dangerous shift.

This current, located in the Beaufort Sea north of Alaska and Canada, plays a key role in the Arctic climate system.

The Beaufort Gyre acts like a giant reservoir, storing and releasing freshwater. Its influence extends beyond the Arctic, affecting ocean conditions all the way to the North Atlantic.

But rising temperatures in the Arctic are rapidly thinning the region’s sea ice. This ice normally insulates the ocean, keeping it cool. As it disappears, more heat reaches the ocean surface, accelerating warming and leading to further ice loss. Over the past two decades, the freshwater content in the Beaufort Sea has increased by 40 percent.
If the AMOC collapses, estimates of economic loss in the EU alone will run in the tens of billions of Euros/year, amounting to several trillion by 2100 (and this). One study indicates that a weakened AMOC would result in more frequent and severe weather events like heatwaves, droughts, and storms, leading to infrastructure damage, increased insurance costs, and disruptions in daily life worldwide.

The abstract of the research paper comments:

Here, we provide a first evaluation of the Beaufort Gyre in 25 historical and climate-change simulations from 27 available global climate models. We find that the vast majority of models overestimate the gyre area, strength, and north-ward extent. After discarding the models with too inaccurate a gyre and its drivers–namely, the sea ice cover and Beaufort High–we quantify changes in the Beaufort Gyre under two emission scenarios: the intermediate SSP2–4.5 and the high-warming SSP5–8.5. By the end of the 21st century, most models simulate a significant decline or even disappearance of the Beaufort Gyre, especially under SSP5–8.5.

SSP = Shared Socioeconomic Pathway; SSP2-4.5 refers to an intermediate greenhouse gas emissions pathway where carbon dioxide emissions continue around current levels until 2050, then decrease but do not reach net zero by 2100; SSP5-8.5 refers to a high greenhouse gas emissions pathway, often considered unlikely to occur, where carbon dioxide emissions triple by 2075

Hm, in my opinion this does not sound very good. Less than optimal for sure. Not exactly hair on fire territory, but not reassuring either. Fortunately, the US has top notch government climate science experts and sophisticated global warming planning and policy. what could go wrong?


Federal MAGA climate science experts urgently discussing
proactive policy to deal with the Beaufort Gyre situation



By Germaine: Not very confident in MAGA's climate science experts


MAGA's Beaufort Gyre solution!!!
Pour little bottles of oil on the Beaufort Gyre



Training the next generation of MAGA 
climate science experts

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